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Daily Play Call

2026 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2026 · Hard

Bills at Texans final drive: call the plays

HOU31
1:314th
36BUF
1st & 10Ball on own 29
HOUBUF101020203030404050504040303020201010

You need a touchdown

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The situation

Houston Texans down 5 (31–36), 1:31 left in the fourth quarter, 1st & 10 on the own 29. You are the play-caller for this Bills at Texans final drive.

Score
Texans 31, Bills 36
Clock
1:31, Q4
Ball
1st & 10, own 29
Timeouts
2 left (defense 3)
Difficulty
Hard
Typical win rate
14%

The difficulty comes from how often a typical NFL play-caller wins from this spot in our simulation. The real head coach was DeMeco Ryans; the defense was coached by Sean McDermott.

What really happened on this drive

Play the drive first: the real calls are below.

Show the real play-by-play (10 plays)

The Texans turned it over. Final score: Texans 31, Bills 36, a loss for Texans.

  1. 1st & 10 at the own 29, 1:31 · Quick out (close)
    7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to HOU 47 for 18 yards (23-D.Alford; 91-E.Oliver).
  2. 1st & 10 at the own 47, 1:11 · Quick out (close)
    7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz to BUF 45 for 8 yards (3-D.Hamlin; 24-C.Bishop).
  3. 2nd & 2 at the opp 45, 0:50 · Deep sideline (best call)
    7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 19-X.Hutchinson.
  4. 3rd & 2 at the opp 45, 0:44 · Inside run
    4-W.Marks up the middle to BUF 39 for 6 yards (8-T.Bernard; 9-B.Chubb). PENALTY on BUF-96-D.Walker, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 39.
  5. 1st & 15 at the opp 39, 0:39 · Deep middle (best call)
    7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep middle to 19-X.Hutchinson [15-G.Rousseau].
  6. 2nd & 15 at the opp 39, 0:35 · Short middle (best call)
    7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to BUF 27 for 12 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
  7. 3rd & 3 at the opp 27, 0:30 · Quick out (close)
    7-C.Stroud pass short right to 13-J.Noel pushed ob at BUF 9 for 18 yards (22-C.Gardner-Johnson).
  8. 1st & Goal at the opp 9, 0:25 · Quick out (best call)
    7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 18 for -9 yards (96-D.Walker).
  9. 2nd & Goal at the opp 18, 0:20 · Deep sideline (big mistake)
    7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins.
  10. 3rd & Goal at the opp 18, 0:16 · Quick out (big mistake)
    7-C.Stroud sacked at BUF 28 for -10 yards (15-G.Rousseau). FUMBLES (15-G.Rousseau) [15-G.Rousseau], RECOVERED by BUF-8-T.Bernard at BUF 24.

By our grades, DeMeco Ryans made the best or a near-best call (green) on 4 of 9 graded snaps and gave up 3.0 win-probability points per call on average. Plays with penalties are not graded.

How this final drive is graded

Every call you make is compared with every other call available on that snap. We play out the rest of the drive hundreds of times from your exact down, distance, field position, clock and timeouts, with results drawn from real NFL plays and a typical NFL play-caller making the later calls. The difference in win probability between your call and the best call is your grade for that snap. The final drive result, touchdown or not, does not change the grades. Read the full method.

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