2026 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2026 · Easy
Saints at Lions final drive: call the plays
Any score wins it
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The situation
Detroit Lions tied (24–24), 1:07 left in the fourth quarter, 1st & 10 on the own 35. You are the play-caller for this Saints at Lions final drive.
- Score
- Lions 24, Saints 24
- Clock
- 1:07, Q4
- Ball
- 1st & 10, own 35
- Timeouts
- 3 left (defense 1)
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Typical win rate
- 52%
The difficulty comes from how often a typical NFL play-caller wins from this spot in our simulation. The real head coach was Dan Campbell; the defense was coached by Kellen Moore.
What really happened on this drive
Play the drive first: the real calls are below.
Show the real play-by-play (4 plays)
The Lions punted. Final score: Lions 31, Saints 30, a win for Lions.
- 1st & 10 at the own 35, 1:07 · Outside run (big mistake)
16-J.Goff scrambles left end ran ob at DET 37 for 2 yards (7-J.Sanker). - 2nd & 8 at the own 37, 1:00 · Short middle (costly)
16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 44 for 7 yards (20-P.Werner; 55-K.Elliss). - 3rd & 1 at the own 44, 0:40 · Quick out (costly)
16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams. - 4th & 1 at the own 44, 0:37 · Punt (costly)
3-J.Fox punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.
By our grades, Dan Campbell made the best or a near-best call (green) on 0 of 4 graded snaps and gave up 5.8 win-probability points per call on average. Plays with penalties are not graded.
How this final drive is graded
Every call you make is compared with every other call available on that snap. We play out the rest of the drive hundreds of times from your exact down, distance, field position, clock and timeouts, with results drawn from real NFL plays and a typical NFL play-caller making the later calls. The difference in win probability between your call and the best call is your grade for that snap. The final drive result, touchdown or not, does not change the grades. Read the full method.
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